Thermodynamic approach able to forecast the time of maximum diffusion of the epidemics validated by DENERG bio-thermodynamic group
A great variety of natural phenomena follows some statistical distributions.
In epidemiology, with particular interest for the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID 19) outbreak, the fundamental aim is to forecast the evolution of the infectious disease.
In particular, the time of maximum diffusion of infected carriers is fundamental in order to prepare healthcare systems and organize a robust public health response.
The results obtained by the DENERG bio-thermodynamic group has been a thermodynamic approach able to forecast the time of maximum diffusion of the epidemics and the related number of infected people.
It represents a novel tool for these kind of evaluation, based on the irreversible thermodynamics and the Jaynes and Gibbs approach to entropy production.
The paper is a result of the collaboration between the Politecnico di Torino DENERG bio-thermodynamic group and the Harvard Medical School.
The paper "Entropy-Based Pandemics Forecasting", by U. Lucia, T.S. Deisboeck, and G. Grisolia. . Front. Phys. 8, 274 (2020). doi: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00274 is available at the following link: